Norwegian authorities are investigating whether a data leak from the Norwegian Nobel Committee led to a sudden, high-value betting surge on the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner. Officials told Bloomberg and News in English Norway that the incident is now being treated as a possible case of cyber espionage.
On decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, odds on Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado spiked from roughly 3 percent to more than 70 percent within 11 hours of the official Oslo announcement on 10 October 2025. Several new accounts reportedly wagered tens of thousands of dollars, earning combined profits exceeding US $100 000, according to Brave New Coin and Hindustan Times.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, said it was “highly likely it’s espionage,” citing signs that sensitive deliberation data had been exfiltrated ahead of the ceremony. The Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM) is assisting with forensic analysis of the Nobel Committee’s communication systems and document management infrastructure.
The Nobel Institute has a prior record of cyber incidents. In December 2021, a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack disrupted its web infrastructure during award presentations. The institute later reported that incident to Oslo police, a case documented by the Nobel Foundation.
Investigators have not attributed the current breach to any specific actor, though early indicators resemble techniques used in previous Russian and Chinese intelligence campaigns. Authorities warn that high-profile cultural institutions remain prime targets for state-linked cyber operations.